So we are seeing a big jump on prices, when there isn't even a confirmation of the real effects this will have on WD supply capacities.
Um, the confirmation is already out there in the WD press release, Seagate's press release, and statements made by everyone from Dell to Apple. In my opinion, the first physical "confirmation" will be a constant hiking of prices or even some models going out of stock.
Having the entire first floor of a manufacturing plant flood out is not a quick fix. It will take weeks before the place dries out and the flooding is gone, and probably another few before they can get the equipment and people in place to begin restoration, simply because of the huge scale of the flooding taking place in Thailand right now. That's assuming the flooding is receding, but it's not.
In fact the flooding is only escalating. Bangkok is in imminent threat of flooding as they are worried about barriers collapsing. Those refugees evacuated to Bangkok are being evacuated for a second time now. So the situation there isn't going to begin to improve for awhile yet.
I'm not sure how quickly WD can replace the highly specialized equipment in its Thailand facilities either, but given hard drive manufacturing requires a
full clean room environment... it will like take WD 8 months by my casual estimate before they would even have a chance of production again at this plant, with my feeling it will be longer. Western Digital appears to have three manufacturing plants in Thailand, not just one. The only good news is WD has plants located elsewhere so there will still be some supply.
Seagate doesn't seem to have lost its two Thailand parts manufacturing plants yet, but Seagate's parts suppliers have lost their own and they've apparently lost a good portion of their local supply chain; they issued a press release lowering production numbers already. Toshiba already suspended its production in Thailand. To quote
Seagate:
"Our business priority is to work with our external component suppliers, supporting their efforts to rebuild the supply chain as quickly as possible. We expect to experience significant impacts to our production levels, while our suppliers work together businesses up and running. Given the severity of the situation and the expense of supply constraints caused by the disruption, including those described by our primary competitor, the effects on our industry are likely to be substantial and will extend over multiple quarters,"
So for anyone needing a hard drive, I'd definitely suggest buying one now regardless as the effects & prices could only escalate for the next few months.
