In my opinion it's very hard, if not impossible, for SOPA to pass under the current text. While the public uproar can have its use as an eye opener of the grave offenses in that bill, it's nothing more than some ado over nothing. I trust the USA congress to not pass the bill.
However we cannot deny there is a real problem here in how the internet is structured and how legislation has been allowing for services on the internet to operate in a way that is largely irresponsible. Only on the internet we can have information channels that can transmit and publicize illegal material simply because "they are not responsible for what the users do with the service".
This model presents serious challenges to copyright laws, even more so when users do make a point of accessing, distributing and making use of illegal content through these channels. Google, for instance, makes it extremely easy to locate and download illegal software, regardless of whatever one may think of the function of a web search engine.
So this reality collides head on with business interests that try to protect themselves and with certain sectors of the society that try to pass new legislation to enforce what they feel are legitimate existing laws. On this case copyright laws.
SOPA doesn't make me angry or scared. I just look at it as social disturbance of the kind that is generated when two distinct and incompatible realities meet in history. It's a given that the traditional business models need to change in the face of the digital world, but let's be clear that the internet needs to change too, in order for businesses to remain the basic pillars of the economy. Thre whole idea of the free speech internet is old and boring already. For 2 decades we fought so that the internet became a business center of the world. We wanted internet shops, we wanted digital distribution, we wanted online services of all kinds. All for the benefit of a society largely focused on comfort and convenience. We got what we asked for. But we cannot expect that the social principles that forged the Internet of the 90s remain unchanged in the face of an Internet that is today a planet-wide marketplace. It's just not going to happen.
What we are witnessing today are the crude first attempts at coexistence. I'm confident SOPA will not pass simply because the bill is inadequate even in how it pretends to solve the problem (services and users affected would just relocate their content outside USA). But also in the fact it infringes on existing laws that protect information and individuals or businesses. But a more carefully redacted SOPA may exist in the near future and, like it or not, may be approved.
There's currently a serious imbalance between copyright laws and the means to enforce these laws. This asymmetry, and the effects it has been having on the internet, is the real reason behind these attempts. Until the conditions become more favorable, it's impossible for us to tackle what the real problem is; the current copyright laws.
