Is NVIDIA's GF100 Broken and Unfixable?

[Rob Williams]

If there's ever been a huge amount of doubt surrounding an upcoming product, NVIDIA would have to take gold with the help of its Fermi architecture. There's been a couple foiled starts, and reason to believe that GF100 might have some issues that are proving very difficult for the Santa Clara company to fix. Charlie Demerjian, in his usual way, explains why he believes Fermi is not going to happen properly anytime soon.

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You can read the rest of our news post here.

 

[Relayer]

Good read, Rob. Now we'll wait and see what happens March 26. Well, besides what Charlie has to say between now and then. I can't imagine he'll let things lay around that long.

 

[Doomsday]

OH man!! this Sucks!!

 

[crowTrobot]

I wonder if it will ever come to Nvidia ditching TSMC and using AMD/Global Foundries instead for their 28nm step. lol. Interesting scenario for AMD to be producing the rival's chips.

 

[Tharic-Nar]

AMD doesn't really own global foundries anymore, part of the deal with Intel. It's like this weird cross merger of Chartered Semiconductor and ATIC, Advanced Technology Investment Company, who pretty much owns Chartered Semiconductor anyway.... AMD is still involved, but not to the same extent. So in the future, it's quite possible we'll see Nvidia chips made by GF... but of course, it's all speculation.

 

[crowTrobot]

Thanks for clearing it up, I guess AMD isn't the major share owner now of GF?
From what I read TSMC only has problems with their 40nm while they have 32nm and 28nm processes worked out so Nvidia might not need to switch down the line.

 

[Tharic-Nar]

Can't just switch architectures like that, since they'll need to completely redesign the chip again, plus there would be changes in power, voltage, frequency, etc, which changes the reference design, and so on. Also, TSMC's 32 and 28 processes are by no means flawless either, i don't even think their 28nm is commercially used. Switching manufacturers will cause other problems as well, since they may use a different process method, it may still be 40 or 32nm, but it might be done differently, so there would be different procedures to follow. Then of course there's the legal side of things, you can't just pull out of a 2 or 3 year production deal, even if the manufacturer hasn't fulfilled it's obligations, and could take years to settle.

As for AMD and GF, i don't know the details, it's all rather vague and non specific. All i know is that AMD and ATIC are involved, but there is no mention of % of company owned, but i believe that ATIC has the majority share. ATIC may buy more and more of GF from AMD over the years, since they are unlikely to buy it all in one go.

But regardless, Nvidia has stated a March 26 launch date, so we'll see how it goes down then.

 

[Kougar]

Hm, I think my post got deleted, but I'll make a new one.

NVIDIA joined the SOI industry consortium awhile ago... this allows them to influence SOI industry choices and familiarize themselves with SOI fabrication. This is important to know, because GlobalFoundaries of course uses SOI in all of its silicon manufacturing. So the possibility is there, and NVIDIA is likely keeping the door open.

 

[Rob Williams]

It's just a matter of time at this point. If NVIDIA hits its March 26 launch date, then that will tell us something. If supplies are ultra-limited for the first couple of months, that should also tell us something as well.

 

[b1lk1]

Well, it is almost universally accepted that this initial release date is a paper launch. Even the few cards that will be available will be snapped up instantly. If the rumors of limited production runs are true then all stock will last hours on the shelves if that during the initial months of release. No matter what, the bottom line to me is that no matter how limited the availability and price these cards will sell like hotcakes. I just hope that all the current rumors are just that, rumors. I find it hard to believe that they will not perform exceptionally well so here's to March 26 and to some concrete facts.

 

[Relayer]

I think the 26th is a "ready or not" release date. They've got something that works right now. It's not at all what they were shooting for, but they can't delay any longer.
Their yields are still awful (the reason for only having a few 1000 chips) and clocks appear to be about 20% below target. From what's being said, and not being denied by nVidea, the 480 is going to be pushing the 300 watt barrier hard. I doubt we'll see a dual chip version, at least not a reference version, to claim the fastest card prize.
We've seen one small section of the Unigine benchmark released by nVidea and virtually no specs. Not even a Crysis benchmark, at this point, and we're only 3wks from launch.
FWIU, they'll release the cards, be sold out in a few hours, and continue to hold their customers hostage, like they have for the last 6 months, with the promise of supply improving in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. All the time keeping their fingers crossed that TSMC can achieve some reasonable yields. In the meantime the price of video cards is going to stay above MSRP due to lack of competition.
2009 was a great year to buy a video card. 2010 isn't shaping up to be that way. To bad with the new tech available. Here's hoping 2011 is better.

 

[Doomsday]

20 days to gooo!!!

 

[Tharic-Nar]

First Benchmark data released.... great tessellation performance... standard rendering is near enough on par with an ATI 5870. So it looks like predictions are coming true, average gaming performance, good programmability. Poor yields, mixed with the 196.75 driver fiasco, long delays and admittedly disappointing initial benchmark data, Nvidia is feeling the pain...



Video of benchmark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpdPSZB8A8E

But, in their defense, this is pre-release hardware running un-optimized/beta drivers in one benchmark. They can probably squeeze another 10% performance out of the drivers.

 

[b1lk1]

I still stand by my statement that no matter what, these cards will sell like hotcakes. We are also still dealing with pure speculation on all counts. If the rumors are ALL true it still won't make even the smallest dent in their armor. The fanboy army (we all belong to one, lol) will keep them going strong.

 

[Doomsday]

i'm gonna buy one o these babies!! does that make me a fanboy?!?

 

[b1lk1]

i'm gonna buy one o these babies!! does that make me a fanboy?!?

Only if you are buying it just because it is an Nvidia card and you would never buy an ATI card.

I for one am an ATI fanboy and wouldn't run anything from team green unless it was given to me. My desktop bleeds red while my laptop bleeds green. I had no real choice in the laptop GPU but in my desktop it would be a cold day in you-know-where before I greened it up.

 

[Relayer]

I still stand by my statement that no matter what, these cards will sell like hotcakes. We are also still dealing with pure speculation on all counts. If the rumors are ALL true it still won't make even the smallest dent in their armor. The fanboy army (we all belong to one, lol) will keep them going strong.

No doubt in my mind either that they're going to sell everyone they have, immediately.

 

[DaddyRabbit]

Yes these will sell. However, when they start becoming available in any numbers AMD will do a "price adjustment" on the 5xxx series cards that Nvidia won't be able to keep up with (this did happen just recently right?). AMD has already saturated all price points of the market with reasonably priced DX11 parts and IMHO are just waiting for Fermi to become available before they drop prices. That way they can eke out as much $$ as possible.

I'm only a fan boy of performance versus price versus features. I went from red to green with the 8xxx series and back to red with the 4xxx and now the 5870. If Nvidia releases a product line that has the features and performance at a price point that doesn't choke me (the 5870 was hard to swallow) then I will gladly have green in my PC again, I just don't think Fermi is going to do it.

 

[b1lk1]

If the GTX480 is under $600 then AMD will price adjust where needed. If not then AMD will not do it. In fact, unless it is under $450, I doubt we'll see any real pricing movements on AMD's part.

 

[Doomsday]

Only if you are buying it just because it is an Nvidia card and you would never buy an ATI card.

I for one am an ATI fanboy and wouldn't run anything from team green unless it was given to me. My desktop bleeds red while my laptop bleeds green. I had no real choice in the laptop GPU but in my desktop it would be a cold day in you-know-where before I greened it up.

hmm, well i am green man then! i won't buy ATI !! lolZ!