Could Netbooks Curb PC Innovation?

[Rob Williams]

From our front-page news:

That's the big question, and it's a good one brought up by VoodooPC founder Rahul Sood over at his blog. His thoughts are that with the advent and development of netbooks, PC innovation could be curbed, and for the most part, I can agree with him on most points. An interesting point brought up that I didn't think much about before, is that it can prove difficult today for someone to tell the difference between a netbook and a notebook. It's easier for those of us who know, but how would a regular consumer know?

At CES a few weeks ago, AMD showed me an upcoming HP notebook, one that I was so impressed with, I awarded it one of our Best of CES 2009 awards. It includes AMD's latest Atom competitor, Athlon Neo, so in some regards, you might consider it a netbook right off the bat. But, it isn't, because it features a 12" form-factor, and that likely disqualifies it from the netbook category immediately.

So when a notebook comes in that size, features almost everything a regular notebook does in terms of connectivity, how exactly does a consumer tell the difference? I can state that for the most part, I enjoy netbooks to some small extent, but I'd easily pay two or three times as much for a 10" notebook if it could offer me the power of a real notebook (with a real full-blown CPU). But, that's the problem... these netbooks and other variants may throttle growth in the regular notebook market, and it's easy to see why.

Rahul brings up some other good points as well, so it's well worth a read.

Netbooks are everywhere. It's amazing that companies are all launching these tiny platforms and just as quickly they're busy slashing prices in order to stay ahead of the next guy. In some ways Netbooks helped generate sales in a tough economy - but as the core of the Netbook platform morphs into other devices we may find ourselves in an increasingly challenging situation.

Source: Rahul Sood's Blog
​

 

[Merlin]

A modified Blackberry, somewhat as portable.
Since sales of notebooks out sold home desktops, the trend looks to be that consumers are mostly interested in email and the internet.
I do see a lot of home computers in a day, and mostly that's all they do, so why not go cheaper?
Now the question is, a netbook or a notebook?
I think maybe netbooks will be even more popular, untill something else comes out.
The TREND, Cheaper for what I only do with the net

 

[Kougar]

As a consumer you might think "So, what's the problem?" - and the answer is complicated. Consumer expectations are very high - and when a product they perceive is a fully functional notebook doesn't perform as well as most fully functioning notebooks they could set themselves up for disappointment. It's a vicious cycle.

Assuming you get caught in this cycle, how do you differentiate the higher performance machines from the Netbook equipped systems?

The problem I have with this statement is that it is not a "new" problem. I am sure Rahul Sood has used an old Pentium 4-based Celeron laptop at one time or another. Any half computer-literate user that used a Pentium M based machine then have to switch to a severely cutdown and often underclocked Celeron would go nuts and forever be unhappy with the Celeron based notebook.

Almost no consumer would know or ever knew that a laptop with a Celeron M would have significantly lower battery life than an identical laptop with a Pentium M. This was because the Celeron M had Speedstep disabled. Not only did it have half the L2 cache, but it ran at full speed and full voltage all the time. I'd need to check again to be sure, but I don't believe there was any significant difference between the Pentium 4M and P4M-based Celerons, but Intel completely changed the rules as far as the Pentium M vs Celeron M.

I think netbooks are great, and don't see a signifcant problem here. When netbook hardware is placed inside a full notebook, there will be consumers that do not understand and of course buy it and are not happy with the performance. But it isn't as bad in my opinion as the Pentium M vs Celeron M problem where users buy low to midrange notebooks that are not even portable because they burn through power exponentially faster, which was probably worsened by the fact they came with an undersized battery. At least a netbook-powered notebook is still a very functional device... and if anything else it will have significantly longer battery life. If the consumer makes the mistake of buying a notebook with netbook hardware, then the consumer can only blame themself for not doing a little research or some quick Googling before they plunked down their money.

Now, if I was sitting on the other side of the fence, as the decision maker for some company selling laptops instead of a consumer, then Rahul Sood has a valid concern. I wouldn't want to alienate future consumers just because they fell for it and bought my netbook-based notebook and expected the power of a full notebook because they paid the price of a full notebook. But that's a corporate issue, not a consumer one. And frankly, most major PC corporations don't seem to have a huge problem selling Vista-powered laptops that run so slowly that it is simply pitiful, or that an XP powered laptop from several years previous could keep up with them.

 

[Rob Williams]

The problem I have with this statement is that it is not a "new" problem.

Oh, I agree, but I believe the differences today are even more stark. All notebooks out there right now are Dual-Core, and while some of them might not be that fast, even the slowest would be twice the CPU of the fastest single-core Atom (no Dual-Core's in netbooks, yet). So two notebooks might look identical, but one will be severely limited by a lack of raw CPU power.

I kind of noted that during my meeting with AMD a few weeks ago. The notebook they showed me was fantastic-looking... it looks just like a regular notebook, so you could expect a certain level of performance to be delivered. But, since it's equipped with AMD's Athlon Neo... it's probably not going to compare to the same notebook with a low-end Core 2 Duo. The battery-life would be far improved, however, but I don't think the level of multi-tasking would live up to a users expectations.

This was because the Celeron M had Speedstep disabled

Interesting, I had no idea (I've never been one for notebooks, until recently).

f the consumer makes the mistake of buying a notebook with netbook hardware, then the consumer can only blame themself for not doing a little research or some quick Googling before they plunked down their money.

They can kick themselves for not visiting Techgage.com... I agree with you 100% ;-)

The more I thought about this post, though, I realized that the surge of netbooks could be a good thing. I'm not sure if it will curb PC innovation, because after all, if netbooks sell millions upon millions each year, then that means component makers will be working harder than ever to produce low-power, high-performance products. Everything inside of a netbook could no doubt be tweaked for even better battery-life, and/or performance, so I'm looking forward to seeing where things stand at the end of the year.

I just really want AMD or Intel to release a Dual-Core version of their mobile chip for netbook use. I had a fairly frustrating time during CES being stuck with the 1.6GHz Atom (I realize my scenarios vary from a typical netbook user).

 

[Kougar]

Oh, I agree, but I believe the differences today are even more stark. All notebooks out there right now are Dual-Core, and while some of them might not be that fast, even the slowest would be twice the CPU of the fastest single-core Atom (no Dual-Core's in netbooks, yet). So two notebooks might look identical, but one will be severely limited by a lack of raw CPU power.

I disagree. At worst a 1.6GHz Atom is as good as an 800Mhz Pentium M, at best it is nearly clock for clock equal with a Pentium M. Link And if VIA has anything to show, there is plenty of room for a better performing Atom Link.

Believe it or not single-core Celerons are still sold today in brand new laptops. It doesn't matter what kind of Celeron, even Core 2 Duo based Celerons sold today have Speedstep disabled and are therefore horrible chips to have in a laptop.

You do mention exactly what I see as the problem! Most laptops are used for internet connectivity, email, browsing, note taking, chatting, or powerpoint presentations... all of which only need a single core. While single-core laptops still exist (Dell sells a 15.4" Inspiron laptop with a Celeron M 560 for $479 as just one example), they are uncommon and extremely power inefficient by today's standards, as you said.

My view is if most users only need a single core machine that meets this base level functionality, then it is a good thing they have the option to pay less for a more portable system. Previously they would of had to spend a few hundred more to buy a Celeron laptop, and another hundred beyond that to buy a Core Duo that only sipped power. Atom may not compare to a Core 2 Duo but it compares well to the Pentium M. More often than not people that do need a C2D laptop are going to know a netbook is not going to meet their needs.

I kind of noted that during my meeting with AMD a few weeks ago. The notebook they showed me was fantastic-looking... it looks just like a regular notebook, so you could expect a certain level of performance to be delivered. But, since it's equipped with AMD's Athlon Neo... it's probably not going to compare to the same notebook with a low-end Core 2 Duo. The battery-life would be far improved, however, but I don't think the level of multi-tasking would live up to a users expectations.

You may be right and it won't, but still a netbook is never designed for having more than two or three basic programs open. The size of a netbook alone is a fair clue to uninformed consumers they aren't buying a full laptop. The demand has existed for a long time for a basic, portable laptop that useable for typing or surfing on the go, it's just a separate market that the laptop market did a poor job catering to.

It'll certainly hurt sales of full size laptops, but that's not a big deal. If anything netbooks are finally spurring some serious looks into power efficiency.... Intel plans to get rid of their enormously huge chipset and build a System on Chip around an Atom. Although thinking about it, Atom was the result of Intel trying to innovate... the SoC Atom is the next progression of that. So technically the netbook market is just a byproduct of Intel innovating.

I just really want AMD or Intel to release a Dual-Core version of their mobile chip for netbook use. I had a fairly frustrating time during CES being stuck with the 1.6GHz Atom (I realize my scenarios vary from a typical netbook user).

Intel was working on dual-core 4-way HT Atoms for awhile, I don't know what ever happened with that but I assume it is due this year? Once they devise a working SoC based around an Atom, it'll get all the more interesting...

 

[Rob Williams]

I disagree. At worst a 1.6GHz Atom is as good as an 800Mhz Pentium M, at best it is nearly clock for clock equal with a Pentium M. Link And if VIA has anything to show, there is plenty of room for a better performing Atom Link.

Single-core chips are still in notebooks? That's ridiculous... I had no idea. As for the SpeedStep issue, that's extremely interesting, and I wish I clued into that fact sooner. It's too bad... people would be getting a cheap notebook, but horrible battery-life. I'll note that I've never, ever used a Pentium M or Celeron notebook in the past, so these issues went over my head.

The size of a netbook alone is a fair clue to uninformed consumers they aren't buying a full laptop.

That's fair, but I think with some companies putting Atom and Neo into a 12" notebook, the lines are really beginning to become blurred. Hopefully we'll never see a mobile (Atom/Neo) processor in anything larger than a 12" offering.

Intel was working on dual-core 4-way HT Atoms for awhile, I don't know what ever happened with that but I assume it is due this year? Once they devise a working SoC based around an Atom, it'll get all the more interesting...

The problem is just battery-life. When I asked Intel why the Dual-Core Atoms can't be found in netbooks yet, they didn't really have an answer. It wouldn't surprise me if notebook companies are holding them back, because they don't want people to really start considering a netbook over a regular notebook.

Even then, I don't think a Dual-Core Atom would compete that well with a nice Core 2 Duo, but I could be wrong. Even with the Dual-Core though... we'd probably run into a RAM issue, since most netbooks like to limit things to 1GB. Frustrating...

 

[Kougar]

That's fair, but I think with some companies putting Atom and Neo into a 12" notebook, the lines are really beginning to become blurred. Hopefully we'll never see a mobile (Atom/Neo) processor in anything larger than a 12" offering.

Ah, but consider this. Most netbooks use tiny 3 or 4 cell batteries... a 12" chassis could hold a normal 6-8 cell battery. Hell, 14" should be enough for a 9-12cell battery, imagine multipling that 3 or 4 hours battery life by a factor of three. Although I confess I might be biased, I run my 17" Pentium M at 800Mhz when mobile and have gotten used to the slightly sluggish/slow responsiveness when at that speed.

The problem is just battery-life. When I asked Intel why the Dual-Core Atoms can't be found in netbooks yet, they didn't really have an answer. It wouldn't surprise me if notebook companies are holding them back, because they don't want people to really start considering a netbook over a regular notebook

This is odd... I am sure there is a reason, as otherwise I'd think they would want to use the dual-core model to push the pricetag a bit higher... I couldn't evne put a figure to the total number of Eee models that exist now in their quest to raise the MSRP!

Even then, I don't think a Dual-Core Atom would compete that well with a nice Core 2 Duo, but I could be wrong. Even with the Dual-Core though... we'd probably run into a RAM issue, since most netbooks like to limit things to 1GB. Frustrating...

Yeah, an Atom should get trounced royally just as the C2D did to the Pentium M. I know there are 2GB Atom netbooks out there, in fact someone was putting the 1.86GHz Z540 into a netbook... you bring up a valid point regarding the memory bandwidth, I want to say it was Ars Technica that focused on that issue. Maybe that is why there isn't a dual-core model yet, who knows.

 

[Rob Williams]

Ah, but consider this. Most netbooks use tiny 3 or 4 cell batteries... a 12" chassis could hold a normal 6-8 cell battery. Hell, 14" should be enough for a 9-12cell battery, imagine multiplying that 3 or 4 hours battery life by a factor of three.

Alright. Once again, you've stopped me in my tracks. That sounds absolutely fantastic. It still doesn't take away from that fact that people might think the notebook is capable of so much more, but I guess that's where research needs to come into play.

This is odd... I am sure there is a reason, as otherwise I'd think they would want to use the dual-core model to push the pricetag a bit higher... I couldn't evne put a figure to the total number of Eee models that exist now in their quest to raise the MSRP!

That's why I'm wondering if there's something else at play here. Are Dual-Core Atom's really that much more power-hungry than their single-core counterparts? When I asked Intel, the answer I generally got wasn't one of faith that we'd see them anytime soon.

Regardless of the current situation, I can't wait to see what the next few months brings. I mean, considering that ASUS released the first Eee in the fall of 2007, we are still so early in the development of netbooks. Even the next six months should bring on a plethora of interesting changes.

 

[Kougar]

Even the next six months should bring on a plethora of interesting changes.

The next six months... egads.

This fall (or soon after) will see:
One, two, or possibly three more rounds Intel SSD price cuts
New Intel SSDs based off 34nm chips (versus current 55nm)
GT300, supposedly a departure from the original G80 design with GDDR5
Intel Westmere "32nm Nehalem"
Microsoft Windows 7

Should be fun indeed.